How Much Have We Lost?

Saturday, June 24, 2017

Time is Now to Plan for NOVA's Boom

UVA's Weldon-Cooper Center recently came out with it's new population projection for 2040 (which isn't that far away!). 

The top lines from the newspapers project Virginia passing New Jersey and Michigan in population, but the local numbers are more interesting.

NOVA counties are going to see some major increases.  I have listed the counties in the 36th District here in blue.  Here's some comparisons:

Jurisdiction
2015 Population2040 Projected
Population
Total
Increase
Percentage
Increase
Total Delegates
Total Senators
Fairfax County
1,129,330
1,347,487
218,157
19.3%
13.2
5.2
Prince William County
443,463
682,111
238,648
53.8%
6.7
2.7
Stafford County
134,251
208,845
74,594
55.5%
2.0
0.8
Loudoun County
374,451
684,911
310,460
82.9%
6.7
2.7
Arlington County
234,678
313,352
78,674
33.5%
3.1
1.2
City of Alexandria
159,571
215,119
55,548
34.8%
2.1
0.8
City of Fairfax
23,193
25,286
2,093
9.0%
0.2
0.1
City of Falls Church
14,183
20,577
6,394
45.0%
0.2
0.1
Fauquier County
67,898
84,873
16,975
25.0%
0.8
0.3
TOTAL
2,581,018
3,582,561
1,001,583
38.8%
35.0
13.9
    Population will continue to shift to Northern Virginia - 35% of Virginia's population will be in Northern Virginia compared with 29.6% in 2010.




    Redevelopment and Planning
    These numbers only reinforce the need to continue moving along the U.S. 1 Embark process.  Population is coming to Northern Virginia and we need to plan for it now as different jurisdictions continue to compete for these new families. 

    Building up instead of building out is a better way to go in terms of infrastructure, energy consumption, and quality of life.  Leaders in the U.S. 1 Corridor in Fairfax and Prince William Counties should see this as major redevelopment opportunity to improve our communities.

    It also only underscores the pressure that Northern Virginia's existing government infrastructure will feel as numbers continue to grow.  We will need new transit, schools, and parks as we plan for this influx of people.  

    Planning for these kinds of populations shifts takes decades which is why we need to lay the groundwork today.

    Politics
    There are also political consequences in these population increases.  Although I did not use the 2010 numbers, if you use the 2010 population used to conduct the last redistricting, this would mean a net pickup of  5.1 Delegates and 2 Senators for Northern Virginia. 

    Although, it is a little harder to calculate because of the activity in other states, it is also pretty apparent that Virginia will likely pickup 1-2 Congressional seats and at least one of them will be in Northern Virginia. 

    I did not do all of the math, but it is fairly apparent that nearly 70% of the state's population will be in the I-95/I-64, NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads Corridor.  Our regions need to continue to work together to look for common ground as we cope with these challenges.

    1 comment:

    1. Wow, please do what you can to lower the impact of the Federal Budget cuts.

      ReplyDelete

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